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发生什么?港股电力股全线大涨,火电企业迎来“春天”,后市怎么看?

uSMART盈立智投 04-26 14:35

4月26日,港股电力板块走强,截至发稿,华能国际电力股份涨超8%,华电国际电力股份涨超5%,大唐发电涨近4%。

消息面上,昨日晚间,华能国际披露一季报,营收652.69亿元,同比增长0.03%;归属于上市公司股东的净利润约22.5亿元,而去年亏损9.56亿元。公司称,净利增长主要由于煤价同比下降和电价同比上涨,这两个因素共同影响境内电力业务经营增利。

进入2023年,煤炭价格持续下行,火电企业的盈利能力有望持续改善。

行情数据显示,截至4月21日,秦皇岛港动力煤(Q5500)山西产市场价1009元/吨,相较于3月末的1075元/吨,回落66元/吨;长协煤价方面,CCTD秦皇岛动力煤(Q5500)年度长协价4月份为723元/吨,环比3月下降1元。

西南证券认为,在"下限保煤、上限保电"的煤电价格改革机制与中长协签订继续保持高位的叠加下,煤电矛盾有望进一步缓解,动力煤价格有望回归合理水平。

稳增长政策持续发力,我国经济有望持续向好,拉动电力消费需求增速回升。

2023年以来,中小企业开工率和复工达产率明显提升。截至3月末,开工率在75%及以上的企业占55.95%,比上季度上升25.15个百分点;开工率在75%以下的占44.05%,比上季度下降25.15个百分点。伴随着工业活动持续复苏,带动了用电需求的回升,电力行业延续快速增长趋势。

近日,国家能源局及国家统计局公布2023年3月全社会用电量及能源生产数据显示:2023年3月全社会用电量累计21203亿千瓦时,同比增长3.6%,其中3月用电量7369亿千瓦时,同比增长5.9%;发电量7173亿千瓦时,同比增长5.1%;原煤产量4.2亿吨,同比增长4.3%;天然气产量205亿立方米,同比增长4.0%。

今年以来电力企业业绩同比均转好,上网电价的提高也是主要原因之一。

早在2021年10月12日,国家发改委发布《关于进一步深化燃煤发电上网电价市场化改革的通知》,将燃煤发电市场交易价格浮动范围扩大为上下浮动原则上均不超过20%,高耗能企业市场交易电价不受上浮20%限制。

2023年2月15日,国家发改委披露,2022年全国燃煤发电机组市场平均交易价格达0.449元/千瓦时,较全国平均基准电价上浮约18.3%。

去年,国电电力、大唐电力的平均上网电价增幅分别为21.46%、18.37%。前者火电板块获得净利润37.54亿元,由亏转盈;后者燃煤板块亏损额同比降低62.11%。此外,清洁能源装机增长,也为发电企业的利润作出较大贡献。

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