“末日博士”鲁比尼:美国经济将陷入衰退,标普500明年或跌25%
著名经济学家努里尔·鲁比尼警告称,由于通货膨胀、气候变化和地区冲突的风险威胁,世界经济正面临着严重的衰退风险,市场应“保持高度警惕”。本月早些时候,鉴于美国经济衰退的可能性,鲁比尼对潜在的股市下行敲响了警钟。他预测,如果明年美国经济收缩,标普500指数可能在未来下调25%。鲁比尼抨击美联储在通胀方面没有达到目标,并预测将出现“深度和持久”的经济衰退。
因其经常性悲观预测而被称为“末日博士”的鲁比尼表示,新旧问题的交汇给世界经济带来了风险,其描绘了一幅2023年全球经济前景黯淡的图景。他指出:“宏观经济环境新增了一些以前不存在的重大新威胁,而且威胁正不断增加,但我们对此却无能为力。”
他警告称,“通货膨胀、人工智能、气候变化和地区局势动荡的风险都将对全球经济走势产生巨大影响,市场必须保持高度警惕。”并补充称“全球需要合作以实现几乎前所未有的经济增长,世界各国才能在即将到来的衰退中取得积极成果。”
鲁比尼扩大了他对明年经济衰退的悲观预测,猛烈抨击美联储政策失误并没有达到通胀目标。并指出,由于美联储的激进加息,明年经济将陷入衰退。
就在上周,美联储将利率提高了50个基点,致力于将通胀率从近40年的高位降至2%的目标。自3月以来,美联储已将借贷成本提高了400多个基点,导致金融市场中各资产类别大幅下跌。
鲁比尼表示,即将到来的经济衰退将十分严重。“这将是一场深刻而持久的经济衰退。”由于美国通货膨胀率为7.1%,失业率为3.7%,这个世界上最大的经济体几乎肯定会面临经济硬着陆。
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