经济衰退不可避免?2/10年期美债收益率倒挂至1982年以来最深水平
两年期和10年期美国国债收益率曲线的反转加深至40年来的最大水平。周四美股早间,两年期和10年期美债的息差扩大至负66个基点,创下1982年以来的最大反转幅度。
在盘初市场交易中,10年期美债收益率上涨9个基点至3.78%,两年期美债也上涨9个基点,推动收益率升至4.45%。
从历史上看,长期的反转预示着未来的经济衰退。
德意志银行分析师Jim Reid在评论当前形势时表示,“收益率曲线倒挂自1982年以来首次收于-60个基点以下,当你把它的历史准确性作为衰退的领先指标时,这令人担忧。”
其他收益率曲线也出现了更大的反转,3年至10年的收益率曲线倒挂层度下降6.6个基点至54.2个基点。甚至连美联储青睐的收益率曲线(18个月期和3年期美债收益率)也倒挂了整整一周,昨日收于-15.3个基点,为2020年3月以来的最低水平。
下图是从2020年初开始的10年期和两年期的美债收益率曲线图表。

MKM Partners首席经济学家和市场策略师Michael Darda表示,“从实际情况来看,这种反转意味着市场预计增长前景将走弱,因此短期利率在较长一段时间内不会维持在当前水平。”
“时间反转表明,只要长期曲线出现反转,增长放缓和美联储降息就会随之而来,无一例外(在所有情况下,除了一个例外,NBER的衰退也会随之而来)。”
虽然倒曲线可能暗示经济衰退,但罗素投资公司认为,美国目前没有陷入衰退,但很有可能在2024年底之前陷入衰退。
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