通胀褪去滞胀又起？美银基金经理调查：预计美联储不会很快转向
正如高盛强调2023年美国通胀将快速下行，美国银行对基金经理的最新调查也显示，受访者预计全球通胀将于明年开始降温。但是他们并不认为美联储会跟随通胀缓解同步降息，并且对滞胀的担忧已经涌上心头。
此次调查在11月4日—11月10日进行，受访者为272名基金经理，总资产管理规模达到7900亿美元。
美银策略师Michael Hartnett在周二报告中写道，调查结果显示，85%的受访者认为全球通胀将在未来12个月出现下降，这一比例创下历史新高。然而更有92%的受访者心忧滞胀，即经济增长继续放缓，但通胀率仍将高于平均水平，如今这种观点已经成为“压倒性共识”。
调查结果还显示，多数投资者认为，只有当美联储首选的通胀指标—核心PCE物价指数降至4%以下时，美联储才会停止加息步伐，而9月核心PCE仍同比增加5.15%。
此前由于市场预计通胀缓解将促使美联储停止激进加息，所以助力全球股市在上月跌至两年低点后“触底反弹”。但对此部分策略师已经警告称，这样的讨论“为时过早”，因为美联储官员已经暗示，在通胀出现明显降温之前，仍有进一步加息的空间。
并且鉴于市场情绪依旧“极度悲观”，投资者对衰退的预期处于2020年4月以来的最高点，Hartnett认为应在标普500指数涨超4100点时将其卖出（较昨日收盘价高出近3%）。调查结果还显示，受悲观预期的影响，基金经理大多增持现金，减持股票。
调查结果亮点：
1. 投资者认为，通胀持续高企、地缘形势恶化、央行态度强硬、全球深度衰退和系统性信贷风险事件是最大的尾部风险。
2. 自该调查启动以来投资者首次预计，美债收益率将在未来12个月下降。
3. 最拥挤的热门交易：做多美元、石油、ESG资产和美债，做空欧股。
4. 投资者对科技股的减持创下2006年8月以来最高，并连续第18个月增持能源股。
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