第一共和摇摇欲坠、银行业危机没完，美联储下个月还会“最后一加”吗？
第一共和银行股价闪崩，动摇了市场原本认为银行危机已经结束的观点，市场预计美联储可能会再5月暂缓加息，等到6月再进行最后一次加息。
美联储将在下周（5月3日）的议息会议上做出怎样的决策，是全市场当前关注的焦点。而在3月遭受重挫的地区银行股$第一共和银行(FRC.US)$近日持续暴跌，又为利率政策的走向增加不确定性。
本周一，第一共和银行公布第一季度财报，财报显示，第一共和银行单季存款锐减40%，即使在摩根大通等大行注资帮助下，第一共和银行仍在3月银行危机中流失约1000亿美元存款，大超市场预期。
差劲的财报重创投资人信心。自财报发布以来，第一共和银行股价暴跌约64%。如果自3月8日硅谷银行爆雷开始计算，第一共和银行股价已经累计下跌95%。
这家银行的危机目前尚无平息的趋势，也让市场担忧，第一共和银行或许会再掀起一场银行业的震荡。进一步，美联储或将出于维护金融稳定的目的，在5月暂缓加息。
期货市场数据显示，联邦基金交易员认为加息25基点的可能性下降至76%，暂缓加息的可能性为24%。就在上周，加息25基点的可能性还高达90%。
Evercore ISI的分析师在报告中写道：
“我们不能排除围绕第一共和银行的发展可能会导致FOMC跳过5月，同时发出6月加息的信号。”
分析师指出，第一共和银行压力重现，让市场疑心银行危机是否真的已经结束；并且，其他地区银行可能面临着类似的不确定性，信贷紧缩的实质规模，会不会也较预期更严重？
上周，多名美联储官员表示，银行业危机导致的信贷紧缩可能会限制支出和增长。考虑到信贷紧缩实际是在为经济降温（替美联储干活），因此加息的必要性减小了。
美联储在上次议息决议中发出了相对温和的鸽派信号，暗示加息已临近终点。市场普遍预计美联储将在5月小幅加息25个基点，自6月起停止加息，甚至在年底转向降息。
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