东吴证券：港股为何还有些脆弱？ 何时才能强势反弹?
东吴证券发布研究报告称，现阶段港股表现脆弱的主要原因是港币本身，不是来自对经济基本面和企业盈利的担忧。此前，由于美联储不断加息，导致港币Hibor与美元Libor息差不断扩大，形成套利空间，市场上不断将港币兑换成美元。该行观察彭博恒生指数一致预期EPS，今年已上调至新高，但恒生指数并没有跟随其强势反弹。港股承压，很大程度上是受港币自身因素干扰。何时港股才能坚挺?该行认为要看到美联储最后一次加息，港币摆脱弱兑换区间，港股才可强势反弹。
东吴证券主要观点如下：
此前，由于美联储不断加息，导致港币Hibor与美元Libor息差不断扩大，形成套利空间，市场上不断将港币兑换成美元。香港银行美元存款占比明显提升。目前，港币兑美元弱势，已触发弱兑换区间，香港金管局干预买入港元，香港银行体系结余一路下行，港币流动性收紧。但该行观察今年4月香港银行6个月定存，美元和港币利率还存在明显息差，仍有套利空间。
该行认为现阶段中国经济增速预期向好。正面外交信号频出，中东、拉美资金对中国愈发感兴趣。“两个毫不动摇”政策加持。整体上，企业盈利上涨有良好条件，所以其不是港股表现脆弱的主因。该行观察彭博恒生指数一致预期EPS，今年已上调至新高，但恒生指数并没有跟随其强势反弹。该行认为港股承压，很大程度上是受港币自身因素干扰。
何时港股才能坚挺?该行认为要看到美联储最后一次加息，港币摆脱弱兑换区间，港股才可强势反弹。
如果今年5月美联储停止加息落实，美国经济正式进入衰退周期，美股会逐渐price in经济下滑预期，企业盈利预测会逐渐下调，进而美股呈现下跌趋势，资金会逐渐离开美国。而在中国经济表现相对具有韧性的情况下，中国会成外资转移方向，最先利好港股。其中很重要的逻辑是，美国市场与中国市场关系已经与此前明显不同，两者逐渐形成跷跷板模式。美股向下，中国资产的吸引力反而提升。
如果美联储停止加息，将缓解当前港币与美元利差压力，港币不再被压制在弱势兑换区间，会利于港股反弹。人民币的息差压力也会大幅减轻，降低海外资本投资中国的汇率成本。即便美联储不会马上降息，下半年利率水平不下降，只要港币与美元利差不再扩大，港币脱离弱兑换区间，资本流动性好转，该行认为就会利好港股。
该行认为如果5月中国经济增速环比回升确定，5月美联储停止加息信号明确，外资长钱很可能会在5-6月流入中国，利好港股和A股。如果长钱按预期流入，市场或切换至泛消费板块，以及中国强势制造业板块。
风险提示：美联储持续加息;国内经济增速低于预期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
