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小摩CEO:银行危机尚未结束

uSMART盈立智投 04-11 20:14

摩根大通董事长兼首席执行官杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)在上周发表的年度致股东信中表达了他对美国经济、经济衰退和银行业危机的担忧。戴蒙将最近的银行倒闭称为“银行业危机”,他警告称:“目前的危机还没有结束,即使它已经过去,其后果将在未来几年显现。”戴蒙还表示,随着银行收紧信贷,这场危机加大了美国经济陷入衰退的可能性。

不过,戴蒙解释称:“最近的事件与2008年全球金融危机期间发生的事情完全不同(那次危机几乎没有影响到地区性银行)。当时,金融体系中几乎到处都存在巨大的杠杆。相比之下,在当前这场银行业危机中,涉及的金融参与者要少得多,需要解决的问题也少得多。”

此外,在评论美联储遏制通货膨胀和未来加息的努力时,戴蒙指出:“如果我们长期处于高通胀,美联储可能会被迫提高利率,尽管最近发生了银行危机。”

戴蒙警告说,量化紧缩“可能会产生持续的影响,随着时间的推移,可能会成为另一股力量,将长期利率推高到高于目前预期的水平”。这种情况也可能发生在经济温和(或不那么温和)衰退的时候,就像我们在上世纪七八十年代看到的那样。

戴蒙解释说,硅谷银行和瑞士信贷的倒闭“极大地改变了市场预期,大幅调整了债券价格,使股市见底,并增加了衰退的可能性”。他强调:“尽管这与2008年完全不同,但目前尚不清楚这场危机何时会结束。”

尽管如此,这位摩根大通高管坚称,目前的美国经济“非常好”,但重申“乌云密布”。戴蒙表示,最近围绕金融体系的动荡是美国经济衰退时面临的“另一个负担”,虽然银行业混乱不会“必然导致经济衰退”,但会加剧经济衰退的可能性。

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