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欧美银行业“最坏的时期”已经过去了?

美股周二大幅收高,此前美国财长耶伦关于政府准备救助受困银行的讲话,使市场对美国银行业危机的担忧有所缓解。

美国财政部长耶伦表示,如果规模较小的银行面临风险,美国政府可能会再次采取类似近期大刀阔斧的行动来保护银行储户。

平安证券指出,首先,美欧政策(和市场)响应及时,大部分危机导火索已被“浇灭”。其次,美欧银行体系整体稳健,系统性风险可控。因此,目前看局部银行风险或难演化成系统性风险。这也解释了,3月10日以来道琼斯银行指数大幅下跌,但标普500指数反而温和上涨。

不过,短期金融市场恐慌情绪未必消散。还有哪些可能的风险?一是,美欧银行业债券市场可能因瑞信事件受冲击。二是,美国商业地产可能因中小银行危机而更受冲击。三是,中期维度的金融风险仍需观察。

美国经济衰退风险进一步上升。美联储停止加息节点提前至5月左右,但降息决策仍有待观察。美联储仍可能动用其他工具应对金融风险。由于第一共和银行持有的长期市政债券不属于BTFP接受的抵押品,在该银行仍面临危机之际,美联储有可能考虑扩大合规抵押品的范围。简言之,为化解金融风险,美联储在流动性支持上会“火力全开”。

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