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港股急涨后现调整,该回调加仓还是止盈卖出?从三个关键问题看后续机会
uSMART盈立智投 12-12 09:49

经过上周一轮急涨,12月12日,恒生指数开盘跌1.54%。恒生科技指数跌2.54%。新能源汽车股普跌,理想汽车跌11%,小鹏汽车跌超8%。碧桂园服务跌超11%,控股股东拟折价12%出售2.4亿股,价值50.5亿港元。

当前时点,天风证券表示,仍然看好港股中概的后续机会,未来需要关注:

1)短期:备受关注的中概审计监管问题或即将有最终结论,若能最终达成一致,中概退市风险将化解,有望进一步改善市场情绪带动继续上涨;各地防疫政策落实速度快于预期,密切关注出入境防疫政策的变化;

2)中期:各地优化政策加速落实,能否推动基本面的拐点与企业盈利修复好于预期,若能好于预期将带动更多长期资金配置;

3)长期:外资开始关注中国资产的配置机会能否带动加大中国资产的配置比例。

2022年12月7日,国务院联防联控机制综合组出台了《进一步优化落实新冠肺炎疫情防控的措施》(简称「新十条」),对风险区划定和管理、核酸检测、隔离方式、保障群众就医购药需求、社会正常运转和学校疫情防控等工作,提出了优化要求。各地针对跨地区人员流动方面持续调整,同时核酸检测方面,各地均已落实「新十条」要求,不再开展大范围全员核酸检测。

截至12月6日,从11月以来的最近一个多月安硕MSCI中国ETF合计获得5.68亿美元净申购,其中有三天单日净流入均超过1亿美元。该ETF成分包括腾讯、阿里巴巴、京东等互联网巨头以及建设银行、中国平安、中国银行等金融股。此外,跟踪中概互联网巨头的安硕中概互联网指数ETF获得2.31亿美元的流入。

近期多只港股通ETF成交额暴增。恒生互联网ETF、恒生科技指数ETF6日单天成交金额超过30亿元,是权益类ETF中成交金额最大的ETF。此外,中概互联ETF、恒生科技ETF、恒生医疗ETF单日成交金额均超过20亿元。

当前时点,天风证券仍然看好港股中概的后续机会,未来需要关注:

1)短期:备受关注的中概审计监管问题或即将有最终结论,若能最终达成一致,中概退市风险将化解,有望进一步改善市场情绪带动继续上涨;各地防疫政策落实速度快于预期,密切关注出入境防疫政策的变化;

2)中期:各地优化政策加速落实,能否推动基本面的拐点与企业盈利修复好于预期,若能好于预期将带动更多长期资金配置;

3)长期:外资开始关注中国资产的配置机会能否带动加大中国资产的配置比例。

重申港股整体Beta是围绕美元流动性改善和对未来中国经济复苏的乐观展望。建议关注「估值修复」及「复苏下的基本面拐点」,建议重点关注以下主线及相关公司:

复苏及估值修复类

  • 社交平台:腾讯控股

  • 电商&本地生活:拼多多,美团,阿里巴巴,京东集团;复苏的线下场景&需求提升类

  • OTA&出行:携程集团,同程旅行

  • 博彩:银河娱乐(商社联合覆盖),金沙中国

  • 消费:泡泡玛特(商社覆盖)/名创优品

  • 电影院线:猫眼娱乐,阿里影业,IMAX CHINA

  • 互联网货运平台(货运需求提升):满帮集团

  • 互联网招聘(劳动力需求提升):Boss直聘(商社联合覆盖)

  • SaaS&云服务:微盟集团,中国有赞,阜博集团,涂鸦智能

  • 互联网医疗平台:京东健康(医药联合覆盖),阿里健康,平安好医生(医药联合覆盖)

  • 娱乐:哔哩哔哩,快手,腾讯音乐,云音乐,知乎,挚文集团,阅文集团

  • 智能驾驶:理想汽车(汽车覆盖),蔚来汽车,小鹏汽车,百度集团;

困境反转类

  • 在线地产:贝壳(地产联合覆盖)

  • 电子烟:思摩尔国际(新兴产业覆盖)

受益于港股中概交易活跃度提升和流动性充裕下的需求提升类

  • 交易所及互联网券商:港交所(非银覆盖),富途控股(非银联合覆盖),老虎证券

  • 互联网金融:360数科

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