You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
高盛:美股尚未反映出衰退风险
uSMART盈立智投 11-29 10:38

高盛指出,明年美股将出现更剧烈的波动,下半年将出现复苏。德意志预计,标普指数将在明年第三季度暴跌至3250点,在第四季度开启反弹,年底回升至4500点。

过去两个月美股大幅上涨,市场押注随着通胀见顶,美联储鹰派立场将有所松动。然而,高盛和德意志银行均警告称,不要高兴得太早,美股尚未反映出衰退风险,明年难免大起大落、剧烈动荡。

周一,高盛策略师Christian Mueller Glissmann团队在报告中指出,模型显示未来12个月美国经济增长放缓的可能性为39%,但风险资产的定价只有11%,这增加了明年出现衰退恐慌的风险。

高盛在报告中指出:

考虑到衰退风险升高和增长/通胀组合的不确定性,股票风险溢价似乎较低。

在增长疲软和波动加剧的情况下,再加上高估值,股票回撤风险较高。标普500指数的远期市盈率是17.5倍,高于20年平均值15.7倍。

高盛的分析表明:

如果能够避免经济衰退,一旦通胀见顶,股市就会反弹。

然而,如果出现经济收缩,在通胀见顶之后的六到九个月内,美股将平均再下跌10%。

尽管美国经济衰退风险相对较低,但对金融稳定以及市场压力指标(如流动性风险和偿付能力风险)的担忧在资产类别中有所增加。

总的来说,高盛更偏向与债券,而不是股票,其表示债券提供了更好的风险/回报,2023年晚些时候与股票的正相关性较低。

高盛策略师上周估计,标普500指数在2023年底将收于4000点,与上上周五收盘时几乎持平,从现在到明年年底的总体回报率将相对较低。周一,高盛预计明年将出现更剧烈的波动,下半年将出现复苏。

德意志银行分析师Binky Chadha预计,随着美国陷入经济衰退,标普500指数将在明年第三季度暴跌至3250点,较当前水平低19%,然后在第四季度开启反弹,年底回升至4500点。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account